Secret： Who is blocking the Sino-European electric vehicle negotiations？

Since the European Commission announced that it would impose tariffs on electric vehicles in China, Germany, Sweden, Hungary and other EU countries, as well as many European car companies, have continued to speak out, trying to stop the European Commission’s decision to go its own way.

Combing the timeline of the EU’s countervailing investigation on electric vehicles in China, the European Commission announced the "Disclosure of Preliminary Results" on June 12. According to the investigation procedure, the next key node is July 4. On the same day, the European Commission will announce the "preliminary ruling results".

Judging from the amount of reported data, American and Western media are very concerned about this node, and the average daily reported amount has reached nearly a thousand articles in a single day recently.

However, Tan Zhu combed the cases of previous EU countervailing investigations and found that this node does not seem to deserve such attention.

In fact, according to the EU rules, "disclosure of preliminary ruling results" only announces in advance the temporary tax rate and the situation of the enterprises under investigation in some "preliminary ruling results".

According to the data of EU official website, in the countervailing cases since 2003, the provisional tax rates published in these two links are generally the same.

Ding Ru, an associate professor at China University of Political Science and Law, has been tracking the progress of EU countervailing investigations for a long time. From her experience, there will be no difference between the provisional tax rates published in these two links.

This conclusion can also be drawn from the amount of reports from foreign media — — In the previous cases, after the tax rate was disclosed, foreign media paid little attention to the subsequent "preliminary ruling results".

Since the so-called "preliminary ruling result" on July 4th has no concern value, why should the American and Western media focus on this node?

After analyzing the relevant contents, Tan found that "China Hope" is a high-frequency expression mentioned in it. Voice of America wrote in the title, "China hopes that the EU will cancel the tariff on electric vehicles before July 4th".

Similar headlines also appear in the reports of American and Western media such as Reuters and CNBC.

Through a large number of reports on the words "China hopes", China’s narrative that he hopes to solve the problem before July 4th is constantly hyped, which invisibly raises the expectations of the outside world for a quick solution to the problem.

Looking at it from another angle, this is actually a kind of "killing" for China.

Ding Ru told Tan Zhu that from a technical point of view, it is unrealistic for the EU to withdraw its decision on July 4th.

It has been more than half a year since the European Commission initiated the countervailing investigation to "disclosure of preliminary ruling results". During this period, the European Commission collected a large number of enterprise data and measured them. If we want to cancel the tariff increase, we need to re-calculate and evaluate it. From June 12 to July 4, there is only more than three weeks, and this calculation cannot be completed.

In addition, because there are great differences among EU member states on the issue of imposing tariffs on China, it is basically impossible to reach an internal consensus on tariff adjustment before July 4.

Therefore, it is impossible for China to regard July 4 as a turning point in solving the problem.

If we see this clearly, we will find that the reason why American and Western media focus on rendering "China ‘ Hope ’ The more important intention is to help the European side increase its "chips" in the negotiations.

Ding Ru shared her past observation and experience in the negotiation with Tan Zhu. Once the external pressure on one party to get the negotiation result quickly is too great, it will make the pressure-bearing party in the negotiation unfavorable.

In other words, the EU can take advantage of the urgent expectations of the outside world for China to quickly achieve the results of the negotiations, and "ask the price" from China during the negotiation process.

In fact, in this countervailing investigation, the two sides started consultations earlier than before.

Talking earlier will give you more time to solve the problem. This is actually a factor that is beneficial to all parties.

According to EU rules, the EU will end the investigation in the 13th month after the investigation is started.

In other words, after the preliminary ruling results are announced, there are still four months to negotiate, and there are still many variables.

Before the final ruling, the pressure on the EU will also increase.

We should know that the essence of the negotiation game lies not only in the comparison of the "chips" between the two sides, but also in the trend of the times and the situation. The statements of some EU member states can show who is on the side of the times and the situation.

At present, the EU’s import and export trade is under great pressure. In the first quarter of this year, the EU’s overall foreign trade in goods decreased by 8.4% year-on-year.

Ding Ru said that the European Commission’s practice may aggravate the trade friction between China and European markets, which will sacrifice the interests of EU member states, especially those export-oriented ones.

With the approach of the time node on November 2, there will be more opposition voices within the EU. This is the real pressure for the European Commission.

As for China, next, China will hold consultations with the European side patiently and rhythmically.

In any case, China will resolutely take all necessary measures to firmly defend the legitimate rights and interests of China enterprises. There is still some time before the final ruling, and the European side can think about it again.